آینده‌پژوهی عوامل موثر بر توسعۀ رشته های بیلیاردی در ایران با رویکرد موفقیت بین المللی

Introduction
Over the past few decades, the global sports ecosystem has undergone significant transformation. Sports are no longer confined to recreational or local contexts; they have evolved into powerful tools of diplomacy, economic activity, and cultural exchange. The emphasis on international competitiveness, professionalization, and evidence-based development models has become increasingly prominent. Within this dynamic environment, billiard sports—which include disciplines such as pool, snooker, and carom—have also seen substantial growth in both participation and formalization across various countries. Once regarded primarily as leisure activities, cue sports have now earned their place among competitive global sports, with structured tournaments, international federations, and ranking systems.
In Iran, billiard sports have gained popularity over the past two decades, with the establishment of national federations, local clubs, and competitive leagues. Despite these developments and the presence of a passionate and growing player base, the international achievements of Iranian billiard athletes have remained modest. This situation raises critical questions about the effectiveness of existing policies and developmental strategies in advancing billiard sports to a competitive international level. The current landscape indicates that while basic structures exist, the absence of a coordinated and well-supported national development plan has hindered Iran’s potential in achieving global recognition in cue sports.
This study is motivated by the need to address this policy and strategy gap. It aims to identify, categorize, and analyze the core factors that influence the development of billiard sports in Iran, with a focus on attaining success in international competitions. The research employs a comprehensive and systemic approach, grounded in policy analysis and stakeholder engagement. The central objective is to provide actionable, evidence-based policy recommendations that can help national and regional authorities, federations, and other stakeholders design effective frameworks for sustainable development. Recognizing the interdependency of various elements—ranging from governance and human resources to infrastructure and international collaboration—the study adopts a holistic systems-based perspective that moves beyond isolated interventions.
Methods
To ensure a thorough and multi-dimensional understanding of the factors involved, the study adopted a mixed-method approach combining both qualitative and quantitative research techniques. Specifically, three main methodologies were employed: the Fuzzy Delphi Method (FDM), Structural Interpretive Modeling (ISM), and MICMAC analysis. Each method played a unique role in uncovering insights and building a comprehensive map of the developmental landscape.
The research process began with the Fuzzy Delphi Method, chosen for its ability to systematically gather and refine expert consensus on complex issues with a degree of uncertainty. Fourteen experts were selected through purposive sampling. These individuals were seasoned professionals, coaches, athletes, and policymakers with substantial experience in cue sports and sports development. Through several rounds of the Delphi process, the most critical factors influencing international success were identified.
Next, the ISM technique was employed to explore the hierarchical relationships among these factors. This modeling method allowed the researchers to identify which variables were foundational and which ones were outcomes of other interventions. It helped to create a visual and conceptual structure of how different factors interact within the system.
Finally, MICMAC analysis was applied to classify the variables based on their driving power (the extent to which a variable influences others) and dependency (the extent to which it is influenced by others). This classification was essential in identifying leverage points—areas where strategic intervention could yield the highest systemic impact.
The analytical framework for the entire study was the SPLISS model (Sports Policy factors Leading to International Sporting Success). This internationally validated model provided a structured lens through which various dimensions—such as financial support, coaching development, talent identification, and competition exposure—were assessed and interpreted.
Results
The study successfully identified nine key factors that shape the international competitiveness of billiard sports in Iran. These were then grouped into four clusters, each with distinct characteristics and strategic implications:
1.      Autonomous Cluster: This cluster consisted of organizational management and leadership, which was identified as a crucial but relatively independent component. Effective governance, strategic planning, and institutional autonomy were emphasized as vital preconditions for coherent policy implementation and resource allocation.
2.      Dependent Cluster: Including talent identification and development and public awareness and participation, this group of factors relied heavily on the upstream performance of other variables. For example, talent development could not be sustained without effective coaching and financial support, while public engagement depended on media coverage and grassroots promotion.
3.      Linkage Cluster: Comprising competitions and leagues, support for elite athletes, internationalization, and financial and infrastructural resources, this cluster played a pivotal role in connecting various parts of the development system. Notably, internationalization—defined as Iran’s involvement in global tournaments, exchanges, and bilateral cooperation—emerged as the single most influential factor. Adequate infrastructure and financial backing were found to be enabling conditions for virtually all other factors.
4.      Independent Cluster: This cluster included only coach education and development. With high driving power but limited dependency, this factor was identified as a foundational element that influences athlete development, competition performance, and international preparedness.
The integration of findings through ISM and MICMAC provided a clear map of interactions and priorities. The central conclusion was that without targeted investment in international engagement and a strategic policy framework, the broader system would remain inefficient and fragmented.
Conclusion
The implications of this study are far-reaching. For Iran to achieve meaningful progress in billiard sports at the international level, a coherent and forward-looking national strategy must be adopted. Policymakers and sport authorities should place internationalization at the core of this strategy—facilitating athlete participation in international events, building alliances with global federations, and adopting international best practices.
In parallel, investment in infrastructure (training facilities, equipment, and venues) and the mobilization of financial resources should be prioritized. These elements serve as the backbone for all other activities, from training programs to hosting international events. Human resource development, especially in the areas of coaching and talent identification, should be addressed through structured education, certification, and mentorship programs.
Moreover, public awareness campaigns and promotion of billiard sports at the grassroots level will be essential to cultivate a culture of participation and pride in cue sports. Media engagement, youth programs, and school-level initiatives could significantly enhance visibility and create a sustainable pipeline of future athletes.
Ultimately, the study highlights the importance of adopting a systemic and policy-driven approach that brings together all relevant stakeholders—federations, ministries, clubs, athletes, and the private sector. Only through coordinated effort and long-term vision can Iran position itself as a competitive force in the global billiard arena.
Keywords: Billiard sports, Infrastructure development, international development, Talent identification, Sports policy
JEL Classification:  L83, O53, C18